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A Model Based on Sentiments Analysis for Stock Exchange Prediction - Case Study of PETR4, PETROBRAS, Brazil

Authors

Milson L. Lima, Sofiane Labidi, Thiago P. do Nascimento, Nadson S. Timbo, Gilberto N. Neto and Marcus Vinicius Lima Batista, Federal University of Maranhao, Brazil

Abstract

Predicting the behavior of shares in the stock market is a complex problem, that involves variables not always known and can undergo various influences, from the collective emotion to high-profile news. Such volatility, can represent considerable financial losses for investors. In order to anticipate such changes in the market, it has been proposed various mechanisms to try to predict the behavior of an asset in the stock market, based on previously existing information. Such mechanisms include statistical data only, without considering the collective feeling. This article, is going to use natural language processing algorithms (LPN) to determine the collective mood on assets and later with the help of the SVM algorithm to extract patterns in an attempt to predict the active behavior. Nevertheless it is important to note that such approach is not intended to be the main factor in the decision making process, but rather an aid tool, which combined with other information, can provide higher accuracy for the solution of this problem.

Keywords

Sentiment Analysis, Twitter, Prediction of Stock Exchanges

Full Text  Volume 6, Number 1